​የሕወሃት የበላይነት በውዴታ አሊያም በግዴታ ያበቃል!

በሕገ መንግስታዊ የፌደራል ስርዓት በምትመራ ሀገር፣ በስልጣን ላይ ያለው መንግስት በአራቱ የኢህአዴግ አባል ድርጅቶች፤ ህወሓት፥ ብአዴን፥ ኦህዴድ እና ደኢህዴን ጥምረት የሚመራ ሆኖ ሳለ፣ በሀገሪቱ ለሚስተዋሉ ፖለቲካዊ ችግሮች ህወሓትን ብቻ ተጠያቂ ማድረግ አድሏዊነት ሊመስል ይችላል። ነገር ግን፣ ይሄ እውነታ እንጆ አድሏዊነት አይደለም። ሌሎች የኢህአዴግ አባል ድርጅቶች፣ የፌደራል ስርዓቱና ተቋማት፣ እንዲሁም የክልል መንግስታትና ተቋማት የሚተዳደሩበት ሕግ፥ ስርዓትና መዋቅር በህወሓት የፖለቲካ መርህና አመለካከት ላይ የተመሰረተ ነው። 
የፖለቲካ ጨዋታውን ሁሉም የኢህአዴግ አባል ድርጅቶች ይጫወታሉ። የጨዋታውን ሕግ በማፅደቁ ሂደት ሁሉም ተሳታፊዎች ነበሩ። ነገር ግን፣ ሕጉ የተረቀቀበት ፅንሰ-ሃሳብ የህወሓት ነው። ይህ የጨዋታ ሕግ የኢፊዲሪ ሕገ መንግስት ሲሆን የሕገ መንግስቱ መሰረታዊ መርሆች ደግሞ በህወሓት የብሔር ፖለቲካ መርህና አመለካከት ላይ የተመሰረቱ ናቸው። በመሆኑም የፌደራሉ መንግስትና ተቋማት ይህን የፖለቲካ መርህና አመለካከት ተግባራዊ ለማድርግ የተቋቋሙ ናቸው። 

የሕጎች ሁሉ የበላይ እንደመሆኑ፣ በሁሉም ደረጃ የሚወጡ አዋጆች፥ ደንቦችና መመሪያዎች ለሕገ መንግስቱ ተገዢ መሆን አለባቸው። ነገር ግን፣ የሕገ መንግስቱ ትርጉምና ፋይዳ በህወሓት የፖለቲካ መርህና አመለካከት ላይ የተመሰረተ እንደመሆኑ፣ ለሕገ መንግስቱና ለመንግስታዊ ስርዓቱ ተገዢ መሆን ለህወሓት ተገዢ ከመሆን ጋር አንድና ተመሳሳይ ነው።

በአጠቃላይ፣ በሀገሪቱ ለሚስተዋሉ ፖለቲካዊ ችግሮች ከተቀሩት የኢህአዴግ አባል ድርጅቶች በተለየ ህወሓት ተጠያቂ የሚሆንባቸው ምክንያቶች፤ አንደኛ፡- መንግስታዊ ስርዓቱ በህወሓት የፖለቲካ መርህና መመሪያ የተመሰረተ ስለሆነ፣ ሁለተኛ፡- ይህ የፖለቲካ መርህና አመለካከት ፍፁም ስህተት ስለሆነ፣ ሦስተኛ፡- የሥልጣን የበላይነቱን ለማስቀጠል እጅግ አደገኛ የሆነ ሸርና አሻጥር እየፈፀመ ስለሆነ። እነዚህን ችግሮች አንድ ላይ አያይዤ በአጭሩ ለመዳሰስ እሞክራለሁ።  

የዳግማዊ ወያነ ወይም የሕዝባዊ ወያነ ሃርነት ትግራይ (ህወሓት) የትጥቅ ትግል የጀመረው የትግራይ ህዝብን የለውጥ ፍላጎት የብሔርተኝነት ስሜት በመቆስቆስ እና በራስ የመወሰን መብትን ዓላማ በማድረግ ነው። የቀድሞ የህወሓት (TPLF) መስራችና አመራር አረጋዊ በርሄ (ዶ/ር) የድርጅቱን የትጥቅ ትግል አጀማመርና የንቅናቄ ስልት “…the prevalence of the TPLF at this stage of the struggle was attained by its rigorous mobilization of the people based on the urge of ethno-nationalist self-determination on the one” በማለት ገልፀውታል። 

ነገር ግን፣ ከህወሃት ብሔርተኝነት በስተጀርባ ለራስ ብሔር ተወላጆች የተሻለ ክብርና ዋጋ መስጠት፣ ለሌሎች ብሔር ተወላጆች ደግሞ ያነሰ ክብርና ዋጋ በመስጠት ላይ የተመሰረተ ነው። የትጥቅ ትግሉን ለማስጀመር በትግራይ ህዝብና የፖለቲካ ልሂቃን ስነ-ልቦና ውስጥ እንዲሰርፅ የተደረገው የአክራሪ ብሔርተኝነት ስሜት ዛሬ ላይ ወደ የተበዳይነትና ወገንተኝነት ስሜት ፈጥሯል። ከደርግ ጋር በተካሄደው ጦርነት የተፈጠረው ጥላቻና የጠላትነት ስሜት ዛሬ ላይ ወደ ፍርሃትና ጥርጣሬ ተቀይሯል። 

የዘውግ ብሔርተኝነት እና በራስ የመወሰን መብት ሕዝባዊ ንቅናቄን ለመፍጠር (mobilization) ተጠቅሞ ወደ ስልጣን የፖለቲካ ቡድን የተበዳይነትና ጠላትነት አመለካከት ያለው፣ ማንኛውንም ዓይነት ፖለቲካዊ እንቅስቃሴ በፍርሃትና ስጋት የሚመለከት ይሆናል። በሕወሃት መሪነት የተዘረጋው መንግስታዊ ስርዓት ከላይ የተጠቀሱት አሉታዊ ተፅዕኖዎች ያረፉበት ነው። 

በመጀመሪያ ደረጃ ሕወሃት ከሀገሪቱ ሕዝብ ውስጥ አነስተኛ ቁጥር ያለውን የሕብረተሰብ ክፍል የሚወክልና በጦርነት ወቅት በተፈጠረ ከፍተኛ የተበዳይነት፥ ጠላትነትና ፍርሃት አመለካከት የሚመራ ድርጅት እንደመሆኑ በድርጅቱ መሪነትና የፖለቲካ መርህ ላይ ተመስርቶ የተዘረጋው ሕገ መንግስታዊ ስርዓት የሕወሃትን የስልጣን የበላይነት የማስቀጠል ዓላማ ያለው ነው። 

ሁለተኛ እንደ ሕወሃት ያለ የፖለቲካ ቡድን ሌሎች አብላጫ ድምፅ ያላቸው ብሔሮች፥ ብሔረሰቦች፥ ሕዝቦች ተመሳሳይ የፖለቲካ ንቅናቄ እንዳይጀምሩ ማድረግ አለበት። ምክንያቱም አብላጫ ድምፅ ያላቸው ማህብረሰቦች ተመሳሳይ የፖለቲካ ንቅናቄ ማድረግ ከቻሉ የአነስተኛ ብሔር የስልጣን የበላይነትንና ተጠቃሚነትን በቀላሉ ያስወግዱታል። ስለዚህ አብላጭ ድምፅ ያላቸውን ብሔሮች፥ ብሔረሰቦች፥ ሕዝቦች በጎሳ፥ ብሔርና ቋንቋ በመከፋፈል የጋራ የፖለቲካ አጀንዳ እና የተቀናጀ ንቅናቄ እንዳይኖራቸው ማድረግ አለበት።

እንዲህ ያለ የፖለቲካ ቡድን የቆመለትን የአንድ ወገን የስልጣን የበላይነትን ሊያሳጣው የሚችል ማንኛውም ዓይነት የፖለቲካ እንቅስቃሴ፣ ለውጥና መሻሻል፣ ሃሳብና አስተያየት ተቀብሎ ለማስተነገድ ዝግጁ አይደለም። በተለይ ደግሞ በመንግስታዊ ስርዓቱ ላይ ምንም ዓይነት የማሻሻያ ሃሳብና ድርድር ለማድረግ ፍቃደኛ አይደለም። በዚህ ምክንያት፣ ላለፉት 25 ዓመታት ሕወሃት/ኢህአዴግ ከብዙሃኑ የሕብረተሰብ ክፍል የሚነሳውን የመብትና ነፃነት ጥያቄ በኃይልና በጉልበት ለማፈን ጥረት አድርጓል። 

በመሰረቱ ሕወሃት የስልጣን የበላይነቱ በሕገ መንግስቱና በፌደራል ስርዓቱ ላይ የተመሰረተ ስለሆነ በዚያ ረገድ ምንም ዓይነት ለውጥና መሻሻል ለማድረግ ዝግጁ አይደለም። በመሆኑም እያንዳንዱን ፖለቲካዊ እንቅስቃሴ በፍርሃትና ጥርጣሬ ይመለከታል። የሕዝቡን የመብትና ነፃነት ጥያቄ በኃይልና በጉልበት በማዳፈን ብዙሃኑ የሕብረተሰብ ክፍል እና የፖለቲካ ልሂቃን መንግስትን እንዲፈሩ፣ በዚህም የስርዓቱን ሕልውና ለማስቀጠል ጥረት ያደርጋል። 

በእርግጥ ፍርሃት (fear) የሕወሃት መርህና መመሪያ ነው። ሆኖም ግን፣ በየትኛውም ግዜ፥ ቦታና ፖለቲካዊ ስርዓት ውስጥ የሚኖሩ ሰዎች ፖለቲካዊ ጥያቄ እኩልነት (equality) ነው። የሁሉም መብትና ነፃነት እስካልተከበረ ድርስ ዜጎች የእኩልነት ጥያቄን ከማንሳት ወደኋላ አይሉም። እንደ ሕወሃት ያሉ ጨቋኞችም የመብትና ነፃነት ጥየቄ ባነሳው የሕብረተሰብ ክፍል ላይ የኃይል እርምጃ በመውሰድ ጥያቄው ዳግም እንዳይነሳ ለማድረግ ጥረት ያደርጋሉ። ይሁን እንጂ፣ ሕወሃት ከሚፈጥረው ሽብርና ፍርሃት ይልቅ እድሜ ልክ በተገዢነትና ጭቆና መኖር ይበልጥ ያስፈራል። 

ዛሬ የሕወሃትን የሰልጣን የበላይነት የሚቃወም፣ በጭቆና ተገዢነት መኖር የሚጠየፍ ትውልድ ተፈጥሯል። ስለዚህ፣ ወይ የሕወሃት የበላይነት በለውጥና ተሃድሶ ያበቃል፣ አሊያም ሕገ መንግስታዊ ስርዓቱ በሕዝባዊ አመፅና አምቢተኝነት ይፈርሳል። በመሆኑም የሕወሃት የበላይነት በውዴታ አሊያም በግዴታ ያበቃል። ሰሞኑን በተለያዩ የኦሮሚያ አከባቢዎች የሚታየውን ሕዝባዊ ንቅናቄ በሸርና አሻጥር ወደ ሁከትና ብጥብጥ በመውሰድ የለውጡን እንቅስቃሴ ለማዳፈን የሚደረገው ጥረት ሁለተኛውን የለውጥ ጉዞ ከማፋጠን የዘለለ ትርጉምና ፋይዳ የለውም። 

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Abadula Gemeda: Man of Straw or Man of the World or No Exception to the Legacy?

By Mengistu Assefa (Dr.)

After a week of bewildering assumptions and theories by politicians and media outlets as to why Obbo Abadula Gemeda resigned as Speaker of the lower house of parliament, on Saturday October 14, 2017 he came out on a state-run television Oromia Broadcasting Network and made his reasons clear why he decided to quit the post. In comments carried by the Network Abadula said he was dissatisfied with the EPRDF`s treatment of Oromo people. He said “I resigned because my people and party were disrespected. However, I will struggle to bring the necessary respect and do the best I can for the Oromo people to (re)gain their rights”.

I have to admit how tremendous the reactions this new development in EPRDF drew are as they are well deserved. I have seen comments and analyses from multiple sides of political interest groups and various media outlets. Some say it is nothing more than a puppet with fake name and identity holding a symbolic representation kicked out and put to garbage by his masters when he sought to breath on his own. Others saw it as a rare heroic move in a march to stand by side and redeem the oppressed Oromo nation.

Abadula`s own words and facial appearance on the television resonate the later. But what really happened? What is going on in EPRDF? Is the institutionalized Oromo nationalism going to take a tipping point against its oppressors (of all kind) in the face of all odds? Are we finally going to see the youth generation who were buried by the state brutality in the last couple of years really grow alive (in Abadula) as they were seeds of liberty, equality and social justice? Do we have to take Abadula for whatever he says anyway? Or are we doing it already?

I argue that both above cases hold some weight and yet miss the essential long track record of Obbo Abadula`s military and public service implications.  The first case which presents his resignation as a forced removal by his masters (viz TPLF) misses the important point that Abadula is nothing like puppet political material; rather a feared reformist nationalist whom even the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi didn’t say or take anything against. He brought him to higher federal office to make him lose close contact with and grip on the fearsome Oromo nationalism (the reformist nationalism which was crafted on the promise that Abadula made to the youth to build and maintain Oromo interest politically, economically and legally in the Ethiopian federal polity). 

He was an army general who served at various levels and ranks of operations and fields in the military. He was defense minister and later Oromia National Regional State president. His Oromo reformist nationalism with Ethiopian patriotism which is an experiment in the making in Ethiopian quasi ethnic federalism is both troubling and essential to the political strategy of EPRDF. His strongman stance gave him a nickname “bulldozer”. 

Given this all long track record of Obbo Abadula Gemeda, it is difficult to make a bold conclusion that he is just a balloon seeking to breath on its own in the hands of its inflators. The second category of reaction is a colorful one, at least temporarily. It`s a view held by the majority of Oromo intellectuals, political personalities and (‘conventional and social’) media analysts. It is a view that hails Abadula as die hard man of the world for the historic Oromo struggle born out of the years-long discontentment with the usual transaction he had been making within the EPRDF and the pressing issue of the popular and unquenchable Oromo Protest which swept the nation to which state brutality was the only way the federal government responded only to claim the lives of above 1000 people and forced the government to impose the notorious ten month long state of emergency which resulted in imprisonment of nearly 30000 people.  

The recent development of border clash between Oromia and Ethiopian Somali regional states (which some claim that the federal government systematically recruited funded, trained, armed and deployed the infamous Somali Liyu Police to weaken the Oromo Protest) made Abadula (seemed) genuinely dissatisfied with how his people are treated by the federal government and how his party is undermined with regard to the existing and unescapable challenges begging only for a proper response. The proponents of Abadula`s heroic answer for longstanding call from the Qarree & Qeerroo and Qubee Generation take this for face value and go beyond with their political ambitions. I think this has to be dealt with, with the seriousness it deserves as it has a more serious damage with far reaching consequences. Here is why I say this. 

First off, it is too early to comment in such a way that the EPRDF veteran politician jumped out of his post and joined the youth for struggle for human and democratic rights and social justice. I am not saying it is impossible. I am saying let us wait and see what he really meant by disrespect particularly. Let us also hear what the EPRDF would say on the matter of the new tension as Abadula is their precious pal after all. 

Second, this latter view which is cleansing Abadula from all his sins and canonizing him into the bunch of torchbearers of liberty and justice who walked the talk of resistance against injustice. This is the big win for EPRDF as it critically helps it to hijack (forge and fake it to be its cause) the existing resistance to which the regime is pathologically incapable of providing the proper justice and democratization as well as prosperity the people are demanding. This brings me to the final part where I propose three interrelated possible reasons why Abadula might have done what he did.

  1. Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) has lost its organizational vitality and popular legitimacy which enable it to bring the justice, socioeconomic development and benefits thereof for the people it represents. The Oromo people especially the youth feel that OPDO has traded the dignity, resources and cultural pride of its people for the suckers. It is considered as a weak, callous irredeemable mafia agent inept to do any good, whose best brings decapitation of Oromo struggle. This view is severely damaging to a political party as anyone can make out.  In order to bring the “lost” organizational vitality and fractured promise of popular legitimacy back to the minds and hearts of Oromo youth, OPDO has to revitalize itself and reclaim its legitimacy as well as repair the fractured promise of democratization and self-determination fueled by and built on Oromummaa and Sabboonummaa (the central tenets of Oromo Nationalism) as per their stipulation of “change from within”. Abadula`s own words taken literally can systematically reverse the malice, bring salvation from its founder and put lipstick on the nose of a pig. This is the way OPDO can fake restoring the respect it deserves and struggling for the rights of Oromo. It is the only way OPDO can continue as a political party and coalition member in EPRDF with no fundamental change in its essential stance. If not, it has to either cut the knot and let the people go or divorce EPRDF and live and die for the people it claims it represents. When I see activists who are hardline critics of OPDO patronizing Abadula Gemeda, I think he is doing great in fulfilling the redemption of OPDO`s failure by atoning himself from the deliberate crimes he has been doing in the last 26 years. For the record, he left a position, an obscure and powerless one in Ethiopian not membership of the House nor Central Committee of OPDO.
  2. The current civil resistance is a serious existential threat to the regime. It couldn’t be quenched no matter how heavy-handed the state brutality is or how much deaf the ears of international communities on the matter are, especially the USA and UK governments. OPDO has recruited tech-savvy and rhetoric masters as its new leaders. These leaders at times go beyond limit and claim to be leaders of the ongoing resistance. They use languages which convey huge meaning in the Qeerroo`s psyche and hence tell the youth that they are not alone. Who are these people? Who elected them to the office? Did they answer the call from Qubee Generation? Or they have been and are in the security operatives of the federal government? For what it is worth, They are Abadula`s protégés for technocratization of the party leadership and state system The matter is a public secret. This new leadership coupled with Abadula`s appealing resignation will wrongly buy some trust of the youth and consequently hijacking the current resistance would be made easy. 
  3. Abadula`s resignation is a double-edged sword. He will use his resignation as EPRDF`s metekakat policy to join the comrades on the back bench and still controls the country`s political, economic and security affairs. This will hijack the resistance, dims the cause and annuls the price paid for freedom and liberty so far while it also salvages the lost credibility of EPRDF. 

I am well aware that my arguments could be woefully ignorant and Abadulas resignation might be as sincere as he and his proponents claim. I just found it reasonable that given his long track record of military and public office service filled with wrong choices and bad decisions, his remaining in the parliament with no member of opposition political party and his decision to serve in the OPDO Central Committee didn’t serve the truth he said to be the cause of his resignation. Because the disrespect he didn’t specify was his original sin in the first place. The extrajudicial mass shooting, torture and incarceration, federal police and military deployment to crush the peaceful resistance, absence of nonpartisan neutral investigation into the killings and tortures didn’t start yesterday when OPDO tries hard to revitalize its nonexistent vitality and reclaim its eternally fractured political legitimacy. Rather the disrespect was birthed with OPDOs inception and its ever since perpetual subjugation with Abadula being its author and publisher. 

The day has long passed when a veteran politician whose coalition party (EPRDF) gasping for the last breath on the edge of its political decomposition trying to appeal to us and win the game, same old game again. It is too little and too late to expect us to be moved by the mantra it ranted to insult us. It is a sunset diplomacy. 

Therefore, I argue that Abadula is neither “the man of straw” who is set up by his masters for this questionable transaction nor “the man of the world” who will use his worldly wisdom and political expertise to finally stand by us and craft and embody the slogans of our pens and mouths and moans of our hearts. He is rather just not the exceptional to the legacy of veteran politicians of this regime who are well known for their empty promises in the name of reform and deepen reform when their action actually is metekakat in disguise. If the case of Abadula is exceptional in anyway, it is smarter one.


Dr. Mengistu Assefa is an intern in dental surgery at Mekelle University College of Health Sciences Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. He can be reached at servezking@gmail.com

​የኦሮሞን መብት የበላ “ኦነግ፥ ግብፅ፥ ህቡዕ፥…” ሲል ያድራል! 

“በኦሮሚያ ክልል የተለያዩ አከባቢዎች እየተካሄደ ያለውን የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ ማን ነው የሚያስተባብረው?” የሚለው ጥያቄ ትልቅ መነጋገሪያ ርዕስ ሆኗል። ዳኒኤል ብርሃኔ “የተቃውሞ ሰልፉ እየተመራ ያለው ከተጠበቀው በላይ ትልቅ በሆነ የህቡዕ ድርጅት” መሆኑን ገልፀጿል። እኔን የሚያሳስበኝ የዚህ ህቡዕ ድርጅት መፈጠሩና የተቃውሞ እንቅስቃሴውን መምራቱ አይደለም። ከዚያ ይልቅ፣ መዋቅሩ በግልፅ ያልተለየ “ትልቅ የህቡዕ ድርጅት ተፈጥሯል” በሚል ሰበብ በኦሮሞ ሕዝብ ላይ ሊፈፀም የሚችለው ግፍና በደል ነው። 

ቀጥሎ ያለው ምስል የሁለት ፎቶዎች ቅንብር ነው። የመጀመሪያው ፎቶ ህዳር 25/2008 ዓ.ም ዕለተ ሐሙስ ከጠዋቱ 2፡00 ሰዓት ላይ በአምቦ ዩኒቨርሲቲ የወሊሶ ካምፓስ ተማሪዎች በካምፓሱ ቅጥር ግቢ ውስጥ የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ ሲጀምሩ፣ ከዋናው መግቢያ በር ላይ ደግሞ የኦሮሚያ ልዩ ፖሊስ አድማ በታኞች ፖሊሶች ናቸው። ከታች ያለው ምስል ደግሞ ጥቅምት 03/2010 ዓ.ም ዕለተ ሐሙስ ከጠዋቱ 2፡00 ላይ በአምቦ ዩኒቨርሲቲ የወሊሶ ካምፓስ ተማሪዎች የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ ለማድረግ ካምፓሱ ቅጥር ግቢ እየወጡ ያሳያል። 

የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ በወሊሶ፦ ህዳር 2008 እና ጥቅምት 2010 ንፅፅር

በዚህ ፎቶ ላይ የኦሮሚያ ልዩ ፖሊሶች ወይም የከተማ ፖሊሶች ከካምፓሱ በር ላይ አይታዩም። ነገር ግን፣ በከተማው ዋና ዋና መንገዶች ላይ በብዛት ይታዩ ነበር። ከታች ባለው ፎቶ ላይ በግልፅ እንደሚታየው ባለፈው ሳምንት በተካሄደው ሰላማዊ ሰልፍ ላይ የከተማውና የኦሮሚያ ልዩ ፖሊሶች ስራቸውን በአግባቡ እየሰሩ እንደነበር ያሳያል። ከሁለት አመት በፊት የፖሊሶቹ ጥረት ተማሪዎቹና የአከባቢው ማህብረሰብ የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ እንዳያደርጉ በኃይል ለማስቆም ነበር። ባለፈው ሳምንት ሲያደርጉት የነበረው ደግሞ ተቃውሞ ሰልፉ ሁከትና ብጥብጥ እንዳይነሳ፣ በዚህም የሰዎች ህይወትና ንብረት እንዳይጠፋ መጠበቅ ነው። 

ባለፈው ሳምንተ በወሊሶ ከተማ የተካሄደው ሰላማዊ ሰልፍ

ከሁለት አመት በፊት ፖሊሶች የተቃውሞ ሰልፉን በኃይል ለመበተን ያደረጉት ጥረት ከሳምንት በኋላ ፈፅሞ ታይቶ በማይታወቅ መልኩ ከ50ሺህ በላይ የወሊሶ ከተማ ነዋሪዎች ለአመፅና ተቃውሞ አደባባይ ወጡ። በዚህ ምክንያት፣ በዜጎች ሕይወትና ንብረት ላይ ከፍተኛ ጉዳት ደረሰ። ከከተማዋ አልፎ በመላው ኦሮሚያ የፀጥታና አለመረጋጋት ችግር ተፈጠረ። በመጨረሻም በአስቸኳይ ግዜ አዋጅ አማካኝነት ህዝቡና ሀገሪቱ በወታደራዊ ቁጥጥር ስር ወደቁ። 

ባለፈው ሳምንት የተካሄደው የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ ግን ፍፁም ሰላማዊ ነበር። ከጠዋቱ 2፡00 ሰዓት ላይ የተጀመረው የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ ከ15ሺህ በላይ ሰዎችን ተሳትፈውበታል። ነገር ግን፣ ከቀኑ 7፡00 ሰዓት ላይ ግን ሁሉም ነገር ተጠናቅቆ ሰዎች በሰላም ወደ መደበኛ ሥራቸው ተመልሰዋል። በሕይወትና ንብረት ላይ የደረሰ ጉዳት የለም። ከሁለት ዓመት በፊት የተካሄደውን የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ ፖሊሶች በኃይል ለመበተን ባይሞክሩ ኖሮ ዛሬ ከደረስንበት ደረጃ አንደርስም ነበር። በወቅቱ “ወሊሶ፡ ከሰላም ወደ ሱናሚ” በሚል ርዕስ ባወጣሁት ፁኁፍ ላይ የተቃውሞ ሰልፉን ወደ አመፅና ብጥብጥ እንዲቀየር ያደረገውን ምክንያት እንዲህ ስል ገልጬ ነበር፡-  

“ከዛሬ 50 አመት በፊት እንደነበረው ሁሉ፣ የተማሪዎችን እንቅስቃሴ በኃይል ለመበተን የሚደረግ ጥረት ሁኔታውን ይበልጥ ከማባባስ የዘለለ ሚና የለውም። ተመሳሳይ እንቅስቃሴ በተካሄደ ቁጥር ፖሊስ የተለመደ የኃይል እርምጃ በመውሰድ ነገሩን ከማባባስ ይልቅ ዋና ተግባሩ በሆነው የሰውና የንብረትን ደህንነት በማስከበር ላይ ትኩረት አድርጎ ቢሰራ የተሻለ ነው። የመንግስት ኃላፊዎችም በበኩላቸው የተነሳውን ተቃውሞ፣ ሃሳብን በነፃነት የመግለፅ መብትን በሚጥስ መልኩ የኃይል እርምጃ በመውሰድ አቋራጭ መፍትሄ ከመፈለግ ይልቅ የተነሳውን ጥያቄ በአግባቡ ተቀብለው ምላሽ ለመስጠት ጥረት ማድረግ አለባቸው።” 

ከላይ በተጠቀሰው መሰረት፣ እንዲሁም ባለፈው ሳምንት በወሊሶ ከተማ ከታየው ሰላማዊ ሰልፍ አንፃር፣ የተቃውሞ ሰልፉን ወደ ሁከትና ብጥብጥ የሚቀይሩት ሰልፈኞች፥ ፖሊሶች ወይም ማንነታቸው ያልታወቁ ፀረ-ሰላም ኃይሎች አይደሉም። ከዚያ ይልቅ፣ ሁከትና ብጥብጥ የሚነሳው በፖለቲካ መሪዎች የተሳሳተ ግምትና ውሳኔ ምክንያት ነው። 

ከሁለት አመት በኦሮሚያ አመፅና ተቃውሞ ሲቀሰቀስ የኢትዮጲያ መንግስት ኦነግና ግብፅን ተጠያቂ ማድረጉ ይታወሳል። ሰሞኑን ደግሞ በኦሮሚያ ክልል የተለያዩ አከባቢዎች እየተካሄደ ያለውን የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ እየተመራ ያለው በጣም ትልቅ በሆነ የህቡዕ ድርጅት ከሚል የለየለት ቅዠት ውስጥ ገብቷል። 

ለሁለት አስርት አመታት “ኦነግ ሞቷል” እያለ ሲፎክር የነበረው የፖለቲካ ቡድን ከሁለት አመት በፊት ኦነግን ከቀበረበት መቃብር፣ ግብፅን ከገባችበት ችግር አውጥቶ “በኦሮሚያ አመፅና ተቃውሞ እየቀሰቀሱ ነው” በማለት የብዙሃን መሳቂያና መሳለቂያ የሆነ ምክንያት ሲያቀርብ ነበር። አሁን ደግሞ “ትልቅ የህቡዕ ድርጅት ተቋቁሟል” ከሚል ቅዠት ውስጥ ገብቷል። ይህ የፖለቲካ ቡድን ፈፅሞ መገንዘብ የተሳነው ነገር ቢኖር፣ የኦሮሞ ሕዝብ የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ እየወጣ ያለው በምንም ምክንያት፣ በማንም አሰስተባባሪነት ሳይሆን ያነሳቸው የነፃነት፥ እኩልነትና ፍትሃዊ ተጠቃሚነት ጥያቄዎች ምላሽ ስላላገኙ ነው። 

ይህን እውነታ ተቀብሎ ተገቢ ምላሽ መስጠት የተሳነው ቡድን አንዴ “ኦነግና ግብፅ” ሌላ ግዜ “ህቡዕ ድርጅት” እያለ ሲቃዥ ይውላል እንጂ የሕዝቡን የነፃነት፥ እኩልነትና ፍትሃዊ ተጠቃሚነት ጥያቄ ማስቆም አይችልም። “የማሪያምን ብቅል የበላ ሲለፈልፍ ያድራል” እንደሚባለው ሁሉ የኦሮሞን ሕዝብ መብትና ነፃነት የበላ መንግስት ኦነግ፥ ግብፅ፥ ህቡዕ፥…እያለ ሲለፈልፍ ያድራል!  

 

After big dam gamble, Ethiopia seeks private energy for power surge

September 5, 20017, Ethiopia

By William Davison
Ethiopia’s public investment in mega dams has been a bold attempt to make up for Africa’s power deficit. But despite some impressive achievements, doubts remain about the efficiency of those schemes, as the government leaves its comfort zone to try and attract private capital into renewable energy projects.

The stink of garbage and sheen of steel at the Reppie site on the edge of Ethiopia’s capital reflects the nation’s troubled past and, the government hopes, its gleaming future.

Addis Ababa’s open dump was the scene of a tragedy in March as a chunk of the unmanaged landfill collapsed onto shacks killing over 100 people. The incident exposed maladministration by city managers and a historic absence of vision for how to dispose of waste.
But on the other side of the site, beyond the locals still doggedly scouring the garbage for scraps of value, two giant chimneys loom over a stretch of the city’s ring road. These are the flues that will treat remaining noxious gases after garbage is incinerated at 1,000 degrees Celsius for two seconds in a state-owned Waste-to-Energy plant set to open this year.
As well as disposing of 1,400 tons of rubbish a day in an eco-friendly fashion, two turbines will also produce electricity from pressurized steam. Reppie, which can power 6 million light bulbs for 8 hours a day, should act as a “stand-by generator 24-7” for a city that suffers regular outages, said Samuel Alemayehu, the managing director of co-contractor Cambridge Industries. The $120-million incinerator is built to the same specifications as a scheme near London, according to the charismatic Stanford University graduate.

Samuel Alemayehu, managing director of Cambridge Industries, looks out on a rubbish pile in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa. April 24, 2017.

“There are many who questioned the decision to design the facility with full European Environmental Standards,” he said. “However, we didn’t want to build a plant for now, but a facility for the future.”
Such ambition is matched by the government of Africa’s second-most populous nation, which has been engaged in a bold energy development program over the last decade anchored on building large dams to generate electricity from hydropower.
International attention has often focused on the dams’ potentially negative downstream impact, particularly for vulnerable minority groups in southern Ethiopia, and Egyptians that rely on the Nile. But the government has been resolute in arguing that schemes like the much-criticized Gibe III will benefit Ethiopians overall, and that an ancient nation has long been denied the right to utilize the Nile waters that flow mainly from its soil.
Yet, while there are indeed reasons to defend and praise the state-heavy mission to make Ethiopia a regional powerhouse, much like at Reppie, eye-catching advances mask a murky reality of politicized choices that affect project efficiency and the strategy’s comprehensiveness. As major dams reach completion, the next few years will therefore reveal whether the multi-billion dollar investments become the catalyst for industrialization. Or whether that cash was in fact sunk into superficially impressive vanity projects that will act as a drag on economic growth. Much also depends on the fate of a so far stuttering effort to attract private capital into the sector, as an increasingly indebted government begrudgingly seeks more sustainable ways to fund power plants.

Bragawatts

In the never-ending circuit of talking shops about Africa’s under-development in upmarket hotels in Ethiopia’s capital, few pass by without criticism of the continent’s status as mainly an exporter of raw materials. If Africa is to finally reach its economic potential, a keynote speaker will pronounce, it must add value to its commodities; and for those industrial processes to take place, electricity is essential.

The case is irrefutable. Africa is estimated to have 13 percent of the world’s population, but 48 percent of the share of people without access to electricity. In 2013, sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa, had around 45,000 megawatts of installed generating capacity. That is only as much as the U.S. produces from solar power. Ethiopia’s government, to its credit, moved beyond the rhetoric bemoaning the inequity to take action. Nine river basins and an undulating topography mean it can produce maybe 45,000 megawatts from hydropower, giving it Africa’s second-largest potential from the resource after the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Since 2008, it has intensified its efforts and embarked upon the continent’s two largest projects: the recently completed Gibe III, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, which may start generation next year. Ethiopia’s leaders hope these developments will power a nascent manufacturing drive, as well as bring in foreign currency from electricity exports. “The Growth and Transformation vision very well articulated that type of high-level vision,” Samuel said about a development strategy that began in 2010. “The trouble is the nitty-gritty.”

A view of the Grand Renaissance Dam, as shown in a 2015 report by contractor Salini Impregilo.

A chunky piece of that nitty-gritty is the efficiency of these mega dams. Media reports on the GERD, for example, have compared its output to four nuclear power stations. But that is a valid comparison of maximum generating capacity, not overall electricity production. While, for example, U.S. nuclear power stations can operate at full blast for over 90 percent of the time on average, hydropower is far spottier, as it relies on fluctuating rainfall. In the GERD’s case, it will produce 28 percent of the power it could do if it was constantly generating its maximum. With increasingly climatic volatility, others think the figure could be as low as 20 percent for the dam that was projected to cost 80 billion birr ($3.4 billion). The result is that while the 6,450-megawatt GERD is projected to annually emit 15,692 gigawatt hours (gwh) of electricity, the 2,200-megawatt Diablo Canyon Power Plant in California, which was built in 1985, churns out around 18,000 gwh a year.  “These are bragawatts, not megawatts,” said an industry insider about misleading references to the GERD’s maximum generating capacity.

The context for this situation is that the GERD is much more than just a dam. When former Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi selected the scheme, it was not simply a big project, but the biggest one conceivable. Studies had indicated the best option was a cascade of smaller dams on the Blue Nile leading towards the Sudanese border where the GERD is located. That would have been “cheaper and easier to manage” and may have produced more electricity, according to a consultant. But Meles’ decision to go for a single dam was not based on engineering or economics – it hinged on politics.

Studies had indicated a better option – ‘cheaper and easier to manage’ – would have been a cascade of smaller dams on the Blue Nile leading towards the Sudanese border.

For the state-building visionary, who passed away in 2012, the GERD was to be the symbol of the ‘Ethiopian Renaissance’ by demonstrating its ability to locally fund megaprojects. Although the details are opaque, GERD seems to have been financed mainly by state bank loans and bond purchases from citizens. The unilateral venture also signaled the end of Egyptian hegemony over the Nile, which had been marked in the 20th century by treaties that allotted the vast majority of water to Cairo. For centuries, Ethiopia, the source of most of the river, has sparred with Egypt, which relies heavily on the world’s longest watercourse, over its use.

Meles’ grand geopolitical gambit has thus far paid off, with patriotic Ethiopians supportive, and a distracted Egypt effectively paralyzed by the fait accompli. Yet the same cannot yet be said about the financial investment in what is an enormous and relatively inefficient power station.

Alternative Sources

More consistent schemes like Reppie will complement dams such as the GERD and Gibe III, which is expected to produce its capacity of 1,870 megawatts for slightly under half its operation time. They can potentially smooth the peaks and troughs from fluctuating hydropower so there is a constant supply of sufficient electricity. “It’s base-load power and makes sure the grid has alternative sources of energy,” said Samuel.

That type of reliable resource, which includes geothermal, is vital if Ethiopia is going to host the textile, leather and other factories that will provide some jobs for a bulging population. There are estimated to be at least one million people annually entering Ethiopia’s labor market and a population of 100 million is expected to almost double by 2050. More than 40 percent of the country is under the age of 15 and under-employed youth participated in unrest last year that was instigated by political grievances.

So far, the state-owned Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) has overseen multiple hydropower projects and two wind farms, taking generating capacity to more than 4,000 megawatts. While a plethora of foreign contractors, consultants and donors swarm around the fringes of the sector, loans from mainly Ethiopian and Chinese state banks do the heavy lifting. For example, a $470-million advance from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China paid for Gibe III’s turbines. That deal meant the government could ignore advocacy groups campaigning for multilateral banks not to support the scheme.

Ethiopia’s Gibe III dam (Salini-Impregilo.com)

There has also been a focus on distribution with the World Bank funding a link to Sudan and a Chinese contractor connecting the GERD to Addis Ababa. The World Bank, the African Development Bank, French Development Agency and the two governments are financing a Kenya-Ethiopia transmission line that is a vital step in Addis Ababa’s goal of becoming a power hub.

Having completed these strides, Ethiopia is now looking for private financing to help develop untapped solar, wind and geothermal potential. “The past successful strategy will not be sustainable in the long term, both from a financial standpoint, as well as from a technological standpoint of putting all your eggs in one basket,” said Rahul Kitchlu, the World Bank’s Senior Energy Expert for Ethiopia. “The priority now is very much to diversify away from a reliance on hydro resources.” This partly means the government embarking on public-private partnerships for energy, and also for railway and sugar projects, as large concessional loans look like they are becoming harder to obtain. Indeed, continued rapid development of the power industry may depend on this transition. But, to this juncture, the progress has been far from electrifying.

Steaming Ahead? 

Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn shows President Barack Obama a tapestry prior to a meeting at the National Palace in Addis Ababa, July 27, 2015. (White House Photo/Pete Souza)

In 2015, with U.S. President Barack Obama’s arrival for a state visit imminent, EEP signed a Power Purchasing Agreement (PPA) with Reykjavik Geothermal for the nation’s first large-scale privately generated electricity project. The concept supported by Obama’s Power Africa initiative was straightforward. Icelandic engineers would team up with mostly U.S. investors to bore into a collapsed volcano in the Rift Valley and create steam power from the earth’s heat. The electricity would be purchased by EEP and fed into the grid. While requiring major investment, in Corbetti Geothermal Project’s case $2 billion, geothermal provides a 95 percent-efficient power source, making it an ideal ingredient in a hydro-dominated energy mix. But while the deal was first announced in 2013, four years later the flagship 500–megawatt initiative has still not dug its first exploration well.

A significant obstacle was the passing of a geothermal law last year that said projects would be transferred to government ownership at the end of the PPA period. That stipulation contradicted the 25-year deal signed as Obama prepared to touchdown, and investors balked. Other conditions also caused consternation. For example, the legislation said companies would need regulatory permission to dig each well, which was considered overly bureaucratic. And the authorities were slow to try and access a World Bank risk-financing mechanism that would guarantee payments to the Independent Power Producer (IPP) should the government have cash flow problems. The facility would have reassured investors worried about Ethiopia’s chronic hard currency shortage.  Corbetti’s chief executive Steve Meyer said most of these issues are now “ironed out” and is confident the scheme has political support and will proceed. Despite his optimism, the delays have been significant. During the time Ethiopia struggled to get Corbetti underway, South Africa, after taking two-years to establish the legal and administrative frameworks, closed 92 IPP deals.

State-owned Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) has failed to produce a detailed financial report for the last two years.

The problems are partly due to the weaknesses of a bloated and hierarchical utility company. Decision-making at EEP is sluggish and there are not enough empowered managers, according to individuals who work with the corporation. EEP executives are over-burdened and lack technical expertise. One consultant said even decisions to purchase cables now have to get board approval because of a lack of trust in the management. A donor representative said EEP has failed to produce a detailed financial report for the last two years. Such issues are typical of Ethiopia’s public sector, which is weakened by meager salaries, places a premium on political loyalty, and is partly an ethnic balancing act when it comes to senior appointments.

Military Power

Politics is also relevant at the top of an industry where veterans of the armed struggle exert considerable influence. EEP’s board is chaired by Debretsion Gebremichael, a minister who was a leading engineer for the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 17-year rebellion that ended with the Derg regime crumbling in 1991. The originally Leninist TPLF formed the core of the revamped military and founded the revolutionary ruling coalition that still dominates Ethiopian politics.

Debretsion Gebremichael (CC/Flickr/itupictures)

Debretsion oversees the GERD, whose electro-mechanical works were contracted to a conglomerate run by military officers. Lacking the requisite experience, that group, the Metals and Engineering Corporation (METEC), sub-contracted turbine construction to France’s Alstom and Germany’s Voith Hydro. While a foreign adviser says METEC’s role in the GERD has not caused problems, it has failed to deliver seperate sugar and fertilizer factories on time while pocketing substantial payments in advance. For years the ruling coalition has identified surging corruption as the primary domestic threat to realizing Meles’ development vision.

In an interview with The Reporter newspaper in March, Debretsion bullishly defended METEC’s role, arguing it helped stave off foreign pressure to downsize the GERD and was necessary to build domestic industrial capacity. He was also positive about the prospects for private investment in Ethiopian energy projects. But such views demonstrate the conundrums for Addis Ababa’s policy makers: despite the need for foreign capital, there are long-held suspicions from Marxist-influenced politicians about private profiteering; and the effort to rapidly boost energy production is sometimes at odds with aspirations to improve local engineering capabilities.

According to one energy consultant, these attitudes are a major obstacle to sustaining Ethiopia’s impressive momentum in the power sector, especially when it comes to facilitating the development of privately owned power plants. “There is still a question of whether at the highest level of the government they understand what an IPP is. It could have exploded with development if the right people were managing the economy,” the consultant said.


Source:- messengerafrica

The messenger is dedicated to investigative and expository reporting in East Africa. For updates, sign up for our newsletter here.

​የሕዝብን ጥያቄ ማጣጣል ራስን ጠልፎ መጣል ነው!   

በእነ አንቶኔ ቤት በስርዓቱ ላይ አደጋ የሆነ ለውጥ በመጣ ቁጥር የመጀመሪያ ስራቸው ማጣጣል እና ስም ማጥፋት ነው። ከኢህአዴግ አባል ድርጅቶች ውስጥ ብአዴን ወይም ኢህዴድ እነሱ የማይፈልጉትን አቋም ካንፀባረቁ የፓርቲውን አቋም ማጣጣል፣ የድርጅቱን ከፍተኛ አመራሮች ስም ማጥፋት ይጀመራል። 

ከ2008 ዓ.ም ጀምሮ በብአዴን እና በአቶ ገዱ አንዳርጋቸው ላይ የተከፈተው የሰም ማጣፋት ዘመቻ ልብ ይሉዋል። ለምሳሌ ከሰሞኑ የጠ/ሚ “ፕሮቶኮል ኃላፊ አሜሪካ ሄደው ከዱ” ሲባል ግለሰቡን አንዴ” አትክልተኛ፥ ሻይ አፍይ፥ …ወዘተ” የስም ማጥፋት (character assassination) ዘመቻ ተከፈተባቸው። ኤርሚያስ ለገሰ ጥሏቸው ወደ አሜሪካ ሲኮበልል እነ ዘፅዓት አናኒያ “ድሮም እኮ የብአዴን ተላላኪ ነው” እያሉ ማሽሟጠጥ ጀመሩ። ከፍተኛ ባለስልጣናትን ቀርቶ ተራ የፌስቡክ ተጠቃሚዎችን ስም የሚያጠፉ ተራ ተሳዳቢዎችን በፌስቡክ እንዳሰማሩ ይታወቃል። 
ሰሞኑን አባዱላ ገመዳ ከአፈ-ጉባዔነት በመውረዱ ምን እንዳሉ አልሰማሁም። ዛሬ በወሊሶ ከተማ በተካሄደው ሰልፍ ላይ ግን ሰልፈኞች ለአባዱላ ገመዳ እና ለአዲሱ የኦህዴድ አመራሮች አድናቆትና ድጋፋቸውን ገልፀዋል። ከዚህ በተጨማሪ፣ ሰልፈኞቹ ከዚህ ቀደም ያልተለመዱ መፈክሮች አሰምተዋል። ከእነዚህ ውስጥ አንዱ የህወሓት/ኢህአዴግ ከፍተኛ አመራሮችን በስም እየጠሩ “የስኳር ሌባ!” ሲሉ ሰምቻለሁ። ከዚህ በተጨማሪ፣ “የኦሮሞ ሕዝብ ጠላት “ወያኔ” እንጂ አማራ አይደለም!” የሚል ሰምቼያለሁ። 

በዛሬው ዕለት በወሊሶ ከተማ የተካሄደው ሰላማዊ ሰልፍ (በአምቦ ዩኒቨርሲቲ ወሊሶ ካምፓስ ፊት ለፊት)

Editከሰዓት በኋላ ደግሞ እነአንቶኔ እንደተለመደው የኦሮሚያ ክልላዊ መንግስትን ወሳኔዎች እና የተቃውሞ ሰልፉን በማጣጣል ላይ ተሰማርተዋል። በእርግጥ ገና ከጅምሩ ሲያጣጥሉት የነበረው ሕዝባዊ ንቅናቄ እንሆ ዛሬ ላይ እነሱን ሊጥላቸው ደርሷል። ነገር ግን፣ለምን ለውጥን እንደሚያጥላሉ እና የሰዎችን ስም እንደሚያጠፉ ፈፅሞ ሊገባኝ አልቻለም ነበር። 

ከፍተኛ መጠን ያለው ስኳር ያለ አግባብ ወደ ዉጪ መላኩ ያልገረማቸው ሰዎች “የስኳር ሌባ” እያለ የደረሱበት የሞራል ኪሳራ በይፋ ሲነገራቸው ከማፈር ይልቅ እውነቱን በማጣጣል የህዝቡን ሞራል ለመስለብ የሚያደርጉት ጥረት በጣም ይገርማል። በሕዝቡ ዘንድ ያላቸው ተሰሚነት ተሟጥጦ ቢያልቅም የሌሎችን ስም ለማጥፋት እረፍት ማጣታቸው ግራ ያጋባል። “ኧረ እንደው ይሄ ነገር ስም ይኖረው ይሆን?” ጎግል ላይ “Moral Corruption and character assassination” የሚሉትን ቃላት ፅፌ ስፈልግ “The social Unconscious in Persons, Groups and Societies” በሚል ርዕስ የቀረበ አንድ ጥናታዊ ፅሁፍ መጀመሪያ ላይ ወጣ። የሚከተለው አንቀፅ ከፅሁፉ ውስጥ የተወሰደ ነው፡- 

“Moral Corruption and character assassination occurred frequently in a political and social groups in the totalitarian state… This process is created and reinforced fear of authority and the system, which is destructive to individual integrity and human dignity and forced the people into helplessness and compliance with the regime.” The social Unconscious in Persons, Groups and Societies, Vol. 2. 

ከላይ የተጠቀሰውን ፅኁፍ እንዳነበብኩ “ለዚህ ነው ላከ!” አልኩ። በሙስና እና አድሏዊ አሰራር ውስጥ የተዘፈቀ ጨቋኝና አምባገነን የሆነ የፖለቲካ ቡድን እና ደጋፊዎች የሌሎችን እንቅስቃሴ በማጣጣል፥ በማጓጠጥ፥ በመሳደብ፥ በማስፈራራት እና የሰዎችን ስም በማጥፋት ላይ የተሰማሩት ለካስ ተፈጥሯዊ ባህሪያቸው ሆኖ ነው። ለካስ ዘወትር ጠዋት ማታ፣ ነገሮችን ሲያጥላሉና የሰው ስም ሲያጠፉ የሚውሉት የፓርቲው አባላትና ደጋፊዎች ከድርጅቱ እንዳይወጡ ለማስፈራራት፣ ሕዝቡም የለውጥ እንቅስቃሴውን ተስፋ ቆርጦ እንዲተው ኖሯል። 

እነዚህ ወገኖች የለውጥ እንቅስቃሴን የሚያጣጥሉት እና የግለሰቦችን ስም የሚያጠፉት ሕዝቡውን ተስፋ በማስቆረጥና በማስፈራራት ለጨቋኙ ስርዓት ተገዢ እንዲሆን ነው። ብደልና ጭቆናን ተቀብሎ እንዲኖር ነው። በሌላ በኩል ደግሞ መንግስታዊ ስርዓቱ ጨቋኝና አምባገነን ስለመሆኑ ማረጋገጫ እየሰጡ ነው። ስለዚህ አዲስ ነገር በመጣ ቁጥር ለማጣጣልና ለማንኳሰስ ሲጣደፉ ለምን እንደሚያደርጉት አውቆና ንቆ መተው ተገቢ ነው።        

ችግሩ በአብዛኛው የሚስተዋል በህወሓት/ኢህአዴግ አባላትና ደጋፊዎች ላይ ነው። “ታዲያ ይህ አካሄድ ህወሓትን ያዋጣል ወይስ አያዋጣውም?” ለሚለው ጥያቄ መልሱ እንደ ችግሩን እንደ መፈለግድ ከባድ አይደለም። አንድ የፖለቲካ ቡድን የለውጥና መሻሻል ጥያቄን በማጣጣልና በስም ማጥፋት ለመግታት መሞከር ከጀመረ ራሱን ጠልፎ እየጣለ ነው። ምክንያቱም፣ የለውጥ ጥያቄ ተፈጥሯዊና አይቀሬ ነው። እንዲህ ያለ ፀረ-ለውጥ አቋም ይዞ በስልጣን መቆየት የተፈጥሮ ሕግን እንደ መቀየር ነው። የተፈጥሮ ሕግን ይቀበሉታል እንጂ አይቀይሩትም። በተመሳሳይ የለውጥ ጥያቄ ይቀበሉታል እንጂ አያስቆሙትም። በአጠቃላይ፣ የለውጥ ጥያቄን በማጣጣልና ስም በማጥፋት ማስቆም አይቻልም።

​አባዱላ እና የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ እዉነት (በነጋሽ መሃመድ) 

መስከረም 2003 የምክር ቤቱን የፕላስቲክ መዶሻ ለመጀመሪያ ጊዜ ሲጨብጡ፤ ያዩ እንዳሚተርኩት፤ በፈገግታ ደምቀዉ መዶሻዋን አገላብጠዉ አይዋት።ከዚያ ቀና፤አይናቸዉን ከፊት ለፊታቸዉ ወደ ተቀመጡት ሹማምንት ወረወሩት እና ፊታቸዉን ቅጭም አደረጉ።
[ይህን ሊንክ በመጫን] አውዲዮውን ያዳምጡ። 16:43

ሐሰን ዓሊ፤ነጋሶ ጊዳዳ—ሙክታር ከዲር—አባዱላም ሔዱ 

በቅርብ የሚያዉቋቸዉ እንደሚተርኩት ሚናሴ ወልደማሪያም በሚባሉበት ዘመን እንደ ወታደር ለኢትዮጵያ አንድነት ተዋጊ፤ እንደ ተሻናፊ ጦር ምርኮኛ ነበሩ። እንደ ታጋይ አባዱላ ሆኑ። እንደ ፖለቲከኛ የኦሮሞ ብሔረተኛ፤ እንደ ጄኔራል የጦር መሪ ነበሩ። የቀድሞዉ የኢትዮጵያ ፕሬዝደንት ዶክተር ነገሶ ጊዳዳ ዛሬም «ጄኔራል» ነዉ የሚሏቸዉ። ሕጋዊ ምክንያት አላቸዉ። በ1997ቱ የምርጫ ዘመቻ የያኔዉ የኦሮሞ ብሔራዊ ኮንግሬስ ሊቀመንበር ዶክተር መረራ ጉዲና «ጄኔራል ልበልዎት አቶ» ብለዉ ነበር። ሰዉዬዉ ግን የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ አባልነትን በሕግ ከሚከለክለዉ የጦር ሠራዊት አባልነት ወደ ኦሕዴድ መሪነት፤ ከጄኔራልነት፤ ወደ ኦሮሚያ ርዕሠ-ብሔርነት፤ ከርዕሰ ብሔርነት ወደ ምክር ቤት አፈጉባኤነት ያደረጉትን ፖለቲካዊ ጉዞ «በቃኝ» አሉ። የአባዱላ ዉሳኔ መነሻ፤ የፖለቲካ ጉዟቸዉ ማጣቀሻ፤ የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ እዉነት የዝግጅታችን ትኩረት ነዉ።                          

የኢትዮጵያ የሕዝብ ተወካዮች ምክር ቤት፤ ሕዝባዊ ወያኔ ሐርነት ትግራይ ለሁለት ሲከፈል ከሥልጣን የተወገደዉን ኃይል ተጠያቂ የሚያደርግ ሕግ ለማፅደቅ ጊዜ አልፈጀበትም።ቅንጅት የተባለዉ ተቃዋሚ ፓርቲ በምርጫ ማሸነፉ ሲነገር ተሰናባቹ ምክር ቤት ገና ወደፊት የሚመሰረተዉ ምክር ቤት የሚመራበትን ደንብ አፅድቋል።

የተቃዋሚዎች ግፊት፤ የሲቢክ ማሕበረሰብ አባላት እንቅስቃሴ ጠንከር፤በርታ፤ ጠጠር ሲል ፀረ-ሽብር ደንብ፤ የበጎ አድራጎት እና የመያዶች ደንብ የሚባሉ ሕጎችን ለማፅደቅ አላመነታም። የኦሮሚያ፤ የአማራ እና የከፊል ደቡብ  መስተዳድሮች ሕዝብ በተከታታይ ሲቃወም ግን «የሕዝብ ዉክልና ተቀብለዋል የሚባሉ አባላት የሚሰበስቡበት ምክር ቤት

Äthiopien | Parlament (DW/Y. G. Egziabher)

የሕዝብን እንቅስቃሴ የሚገድብ ደንብ አፀደቀ።የኦሮሚያ እና የሶማሌ መስተዳድር ግጭት መቶዎችን ሲገድል፤ ሺዎችን ሲያፈናቅል የሕዝብ እንደራሴ የሚባሉት የምክር ቤት አባላት ለመነጋገር እንኳን አልቃጡም።

የዩኒቨርስቲ መምሕር እና የአምደ መረብ ፀሐፊ አቶ ስዩም ተሾመ እንደሚሉት ሕዝብ ሲቃወም፤ ሲበደል  ሲገደል፤ ሲሰደድ ምክር ቤቱም፤ አፈጉባኤዉም ለሕዝብ ምንም አልሰሩም።

አባዱላ ገመዳ ለወከለዉ ሕዝብ ምንም አላደረገም የሚባለዉን ምክር ቤት መምራት የጀመሩት 2003 ነበር።ከሰባት ዓመት በኋላ ሥልጣን ለቀቁ።ሥልጣን ለመልቀቅ የወሰኑበትን ትክክለኛ ምክንያት እራሳቸዉ ወይም ሿሚዎቻቸዉ እስከ ዛሬ ቀትር ድረስ በግልፅ አላስታወቁም።የተለያዩ የፖለቲካ ተንታኞች እንደሚሉት ግን አባዱላ ሥልጣን ለመልቀቅ የወሰኑት በቅርቡ በሶማሊያና በኦሮሚያ መስተዳድሮች የተቀሰቀሰዉን ደም አፋሳሽ ግጭት የኢትዮጵያ ፌደራዊ መንግስት አለማስቆሙን በመቃወም ነዉ።አቶ ሥዩምም በዚሕ ይስማማሉ።                          

የቀድሞዉ የኢትዮጵያ ፕሬዝደንት እና የኦሮሞ ሕዝብ ዴሞክራሲያዊ ድርጅት (ኦሕዴድ)ስራ አስፈፃሚ ኮሚቴ አባል  ዶክተር ነጋሶ ጊዳዳ እንደሚገምቱት ግን አባዱላ በገዢዉ ፓርቲ ኢሕአዴግ ሥራ-እና አሰራር ቅሬታ ካደረባቸዉ ቆይቷል።                         

የቅሬታዉ ዝርዝር ብዙ ነዉ።መስከረም 2003 የምክር ቤቱን የፕላስቲክ መዶሻ ለመጀመሪያ ጊዜ ሲጨብጡ፤ ያዩ እንዳሚተርኩት፤ በፈገግታ ደምቀዉ መዶሻዋን አገላብጠዉ አይዋት።ከዚያ ቀና፤አይናቸዉን ከፊትለፊታቸዉ ወደ ተቀመጡት ሹማምንት ወረወሩት እና ፊታቸዉን ቅጭም አደረጉ።

የሳቅ ፈገግታቸዉ ምክንያት

Äthiopien Abadula Gemeda und Kang Chang-hee (picture alliance/AP/Yonhap)

ጠመንጃ፤ መትረየስ፤ በትረ መኮንን ሲያገላብጥ የኖረ እጃቸዉ ሳይደክም የእንጨት ጠረጴዛ መወገሪያ መዶሻ እንዲይዝ መገደዱ ሊሆን፤ ላይሆንም ይችላል።

ብዙዎች እንደሚስማሙበት ግን ሰዉዬዉ ከተራ ታጋይነት ባጭር ጊዜ ወደ ፖለቲካ ፓርቲ መስራችነት፤ ከጄኔራልነት ወደ ርዕሠ-መስተዳድርነት ከርዕሰ መስተዳድርነት ወደ አፈ ጉባኤነት የመገለባበጣቸዉ መሠረት ለአለቆቻቸዉ በተለይ ለቀድሞዉ ጠቅላይ ሚንስትር ለአቶ መለስ ዜናዊ «አቤት» ባይ በመሆናቸዉ ነዉ።                        

የኦሮሞ ነፃነት ግንባር (አነግ) እንደ ሁለተኛ ትልቅ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ የመሠረተዉን መንግስት ጥሎ ሲወጣ፤ በሁለት እግሩ ለመቆም የሚዉተረተረዉ ኦሕዴድ የኦነግን ክፍተት እንዲሞላ ሲያንደርድሩት ከነበሩት ከፍተኛ መሪዎች አባዱላ አንዱ ነበሩ።

ሐሰን ዓሊ ከተራ አባልነት ወደ ርዕሰ-መስተዳድርነት ሲንቻረሩ መወጣጫ መሠላሉን ከዘረጉት፤ ከርዕሠ-መስተዳድርነት ማማ  ተሽንቀንጥረዉ ከስደት አረሕ ላይ ሲያርፉ-የተዘረጋዉን መሰላል ካጠፉት አንዱ ናቸዉ።ፕሬዝደንት ነጋሶ ጊዳዳ፤ ኩማ ደመቅሳ፤አልማዝ መኮ፤ጁነዲን ሳዶ፤ሙክታር ከድር፤ አስቴር ማሞ ሽቅብ ወጥተዉ ሲወርዱ፤ ሲሰደዱ ወይም ሲባረሩ እሳቸዉ ነበሩ።ዘንድሮ ምን አገኛቸዉ? ካልተመቻቸዉ መልቀቅ ይላሉ አንድ የኦሕዴድ አባል።                                   

አቶ ስዩም ተሾመ ደግሞ  በተሰጣቸዉ ሕገ መንግስታዊ ሥልጣን መጠቀም ሥላልቻሉ ነዉ ባይ ናቸዉ።                          

የኢትዮጵያ ገዢ ፓርቲ ኢሕአዴግ ከሚያስተናብራቸዉ አራት የፖለቲካ ማሕበራት ትልቁን አካባቢ የሚያስተዳድረዉ በርካታ የምክር ቤት መቀመጫ ያለዉም የኦሮሞ ሕዝብ ዴሞክራሲያዉ ድርጅት (ኦሕዴድ) ነዉ።መሪዎቹን ቶሎ በመቀያየርም ኦሕዴድን የሚስተካከል የለም።አቶ ሐሰን ዓሊ፤ዶክተር ነጋሶ ጊዳዳ፤

Äthiopien | Parlament (DW/Y. G. Egziabher)

አቶ ኩማ ደመቅሳ፤ አቶ ድሪባ ሐርቆ፤ አቶ ዮናታን ዲቢሳ፤ ወይዘሮ አልማዝ መኮ፤ አቶ ጁነዲን ሳዶ፤ አቶ ሙክታር ከድር፤ አሁን ደግሞ አቶ አባዱላ ገመዳ።በሥልጣን ላይ ያለዉን መንግሥት በመቃወም ተደጋጋሚ ሕዝባዊ አመፅ የሚደረገዉም ኦሕዴድ በሚያስተዳድረዉ አካባቢ ነዉ።ዶክተር ነጋሶ የኦሕዴድ ለጋነት-አንድ፤ የሌሎቹ የኢሕአዲግ መሪዎች ተፅዕኖ ሁለት ምክንያት አላቸዉ።                             

አቶ ስዩም ተሾመ ደግሞ የኦሮሞን ሕዝብ መሪ አልባ የማድረግ እርምጃ አንዱ አካል ነዉ ይላሉ።

አቶ አባዱላ ከሳቸዉ በፊት የነበሩ፤ ጄኔራሎችን፤ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ መሪዎችን፤ርዕሰ-መስተዳድሮችን፤ አፈ ጉባኤዎችን ሲተኩ እንደነበረዉ ሁሉ ዛሬ በተራቸዉ በሌላ መተካታቸዉ እርግጥም ቀላልም ነዉ።የኦሕዴድ-በተናጥል፤ የኢሕአዴግ-በጥቅል የወደፊት ጉዞ ከሁሉም በላይ የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ እዉነት ማነጋገሩ አይቀርም።አቶ  ስዩም የማይቀረዉን መጠበቅ ይሉታል። 


DW_Amharic
ነጋሽ መሐመድ

ሸዋዬ ለገሰ

የዲያስፖራ ፖለቲካ: ከመደማመጥ መጯጯህ፣ ከመተባበር መጠላለፍ

ከBBN_ራዲዮ ጋር ያደረኩት ቃለ ምልልስ የመጀመሪያ ክፍል በኢትዮጲያ ስላለው ወቅታዊ ፖለቲካዊ ሁኔታ፤ በተለያዩ የሀገሪቱ ክፍሎች እየተነሳ ስላለው የለውጥ ጥያቄ እና የኢህአደግ መንግስት ፀረ-ለውጥ  አቋምን በተመለከተ ዝርዝር ማብራሪያ ለመስጠት ሞክሬያለሁ፡፡ የቃለ ምልልሱን የመጀመሪያ ክፍል ቀጥሎ ያለውን ሊንክ በመጫን ማድመጥ ትችላላችሁ! 

BBN_Radio_Interview_part_one.

በቃለ ምልልሱ ሁለተኛና የመጨረሻ ክፍልን ደግሞ ስለ ዲያስፖራ ተቃዋሚዎች የፖለቲካ አካሄድ በስፋት ተወያይተናል፡፡ በዚህም ፅንፈኛ ብሔርተኞች እና አክራሪ አንድነቶች፣ እንዲሁም ጥራዝ_ነጠቅ ምሁራን (ልሂቃን) የኢህአዴግ መንግስት እድሜውን እንዲያራዝም ምቹ ሁኔታ ከመፍጠር አልፎ በኢትዮጲያ ፖለቲካ ውስጥ ለውጥና መሻሻል እንዳይመጣ ዋና ማነቆ መሆናቸውን በዝርዝር ለመግለፅ ሞክሬያለሁ፡፡ የቃለ ምልልሱን ሁለተኛ ክፍል ቀጥሎ ያለውን ሊንክ በመጫን ማድመጥ ትችላላችሁ!  

BBN_Radio_Interview_part_two

የዲያስፖራ ፖለቲካ፦ ከመደማመጥ መጯጯህ፣ ከመግባባት መጠላለፍ!